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🏛️politicsMonday, March 16, 2026·via Chris Cillizza Substack

Trump starts 2026 at 43% approval and the ad guys just popped champagne

43% approve, 54% disapprove — and somehow that’s not a career obituary in American politics, it’s a fundraising email subject line.

Chris Cillizza, citing Decision Desk HQ, says Trump is kicking off the 2026 campaign sitting on a 43/54 split. That’s not “momentum.” That’s a human Rorschach test with a Super PACs-only fans account.

Translation

half the country can’t stand him, and the other half thinks that’s a feature, not a bug.

And if you’re wondering who this helps, it’s not you. It’s not your rent. It’s not your health insurance. It’s not your kid’s school. It’s the political-industrial complex — the consultants, the ad buyers, the pollsters, the cable panels with twelve people yelling about “electability” like it’s weather.

The Number

97 — that’s the combined percentage of Americans who already have a strong opinion about this man, meaning the “campaign” is basically a national rage subscription with optional donations.

Everyone’s calling it “volatility,” like this is a fun stock you day-trade.

Translation

it’s a knife fight over turnout where both sides will spend billions to move, what, 1-3% of the country? The rest of us are just trapped in the elevator while two guys argue about who owns the building.

Meanwhile, every election cycle the ad rates inflate, your attention gets strip-mined, and the people with actual problems get told to wait until after November. Again.

The Bottom Line

America is about to light another money bonfire so 2% of voters can decide which billionaire-backed hallucination runs your life.

TLDR

Trump’s at 43% approval, 54% disapproval, and the only clear winners are the consultants cashing checks off your stress.

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